But the watchdog is clear that “significant risks and gaps” lie ahead. While 91% of the first five‑year carbon budget is backed by credible or low‑risk plans, that confidence drops to just 64% up to 2035 and 58% for the late 2030s, leaving Scotland’s later budgets in real jeopardy.
Long-term plans to clean up Scotland’s homes are too slow, and Scottish Ministers are placing a “significant level of reliance” on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies designed to remove carbon from the atmosphere, that are not yet operating at scale in Scotland. The Committee warns this approach could put future so-called ‘carbon budgets’ in doubt.
Responding, Oxfam Scotland says that current plans to speed up emission cuts lack credibility, cash and a clear route to delivery in high-emitting sectors. Campaigners caution that leaning heavily on carbon capture and other negative emissions technologies risks turning Scotland’s climate strategy into a high-stakes gamble, delaying action today in the hope that fanciful future fixes will close the gap tomorrow.
With time lags between policy action and emission reductions, Oxfam Scotland says delivering meaningful cuts to pollution requires fast, significant and sustained new investment at a time of public finance pressure, yet the Scottish Government’s new draft Climate Change Plan (CCP) is largely silent on where that money will come from.
Campaigners argue that those who pollute most, and those with the broadest shoulders, must contribute more. While they strongly welcome plans for a private jet tax in Scotland, they say the richest households produce, on average, four times more pollution than those on the lowest incomes, making fairer general taxation essential to funding climate action.
For example, with the Committee critical of the ‘delay and catch up’ strategy for low carbon heating, campaigners say fair taxation could fund faster roll out of low carbon heating by providing households with reliable access to more comprehensive grants to cover the upfront costs, with fully-funded upgrades for people on low incomes. It could also fund more investment in public transport, which simultaneously cuts emissions and living costs.
Jamie Livingstone, Head of Oxfam Scotland, said: “Progress, albeit against weakened climate ambition, is undoubtedly positive, but beneath the surface lies a clear warning: long-term plans lack credibility, cash and a clear route to delivery. Scotland’s approach is too reliant on science fiction and too silent on where the significant cash injection needed will come from – that’s a high-stakes climate gamble. Meaningful climate action will take real money and, to be truly fair, the costs must fall on polluters and those most able to pay, not on families already feeling the squeeze. With the Scottish election looming, all parties must spell out how they’ll fund climate action fairly and end the reliance on fanciful future fixes.”
/ENDS
For more information and interviews, please contact: Rebecca Lozza, Oxfam Media and Communications Adviser, Scotland and Wales: rlozza1@oxfam.org.uk / 07917738450
Notes to Editors
- Access data on carbon inequality in Scotland here.
- Read Oxfam Scotland’s briefing paper: A Vision for a Just Scotland: How the Scottish Parliament can fight injustice and inequality while protecting people and planet here.
- Read No Home Left Behind: Funding a Just Transition to Clean Heat in Scotland (2024). Produced by IPPR Scotland, in partnership with Oxfam Scotland and the Scottish Federation for Housing Associations, the report proposes a fair and sustainable funding option by creating a new system of grants that reduces existing inequalities.
